Understanding Trump’s Views on NATO: Remarks, Realities, and Repercussions

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Donald Trump, currently leading the race for the Republican Party’s nomination this year, claimed that he had previously cautioned he would permit Russia to act freely towards NATO member nations failing to allocate 2% of their gross domestic product to defense. This statement from Trump on Saturday is another example of his apparent inclination towards authoritarian states over democratic allies of the United States. Furthermore, it suggests that the 77-year-old either lacks comprehension of NATO’s functioning or is manipulating facts for political advantage.

WHAT IS NATO?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was established in the aftermath of World War II to counteract the spread of Soviet influence in Europe, particularly as the Eastern part of the continent fell under the Kremlin’s control.

The alliance’s inaugural secretary-general, British General Hastings Ismay, famously articulated its objective as “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down,” underscoring the longstanding concern about Russia’s expansionism within NATO’s foundational principles.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there were debates over NATO’s continued relevance. Russia has consistently expressed resentment towards NATO’s eastward expansion, perceiving it as a direct threat to its interests. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly voiced Moscow’s opposition to NATO’s encroachment into what it considers its historical sphere of influence.

Putin has sought to rationalize Russia’s actions, including the war against Ukraine, partly by citing NATO’s enlargement. However, it’s worth noting that Ukraine did not have immediate prospects of NATO membership when Russian forces entered the country in February 2022. Nevertheless, NATO leaders have affirmed that Ukraine will eventually join the alliance.

NATO currently consists of 31 member states. Finland recently became the latest addition, departing from decades of neutrality following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sweden also aspires to join but awaits approval from Hungary, the sole member yet to ratify the Scandinavian nation’s bid.

WHAT DID TRUMP SAY?

During a rally in Conway, South Carolina, Trump reminisced about his time as president, recounting how he once informed an unnamed NATO member that he would withhold U.S. assistance and even “encourage” Russia to act freely if allies failed to meet their military spending obligations. “‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?'” Trump recalled saying. “‘No, I would not protect you. I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'”

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WHAT DID TRUMP GET WRONG?

NATO membership does not involve direct payments to the organization, aside from contributions to administrative funds. Trump’s remarks were not about these administrative fees

Throughout his presidency and beyond, Trump has consistently criticized NATO members’ levels of military expenditure. This concern predates his administration, with previous U.S. presidents also highlighting the issue. In 2014, during the Obama administration, NATO members committed to gradually increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2024, a target reiterated by Secretary-General Stoltenberg.

During their recent summit in Lithuania, NATO leaders amended this pledge, agreeing to aim for a minimum of 2% of GDP allocated to military budgets, without setting a specific deadline.

The 2% benchmark serves as a guideline for members to invest in their defense capabilities, thus enhancing the collective security of the alliance. However, adherence to this goal is voluntary, and there are no financial debts or “delinquency” involved. Member states allocate these funds to their respective armed forces, not to NATO directly.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia nearly two years ago has further underscored the importance for NATO members to bolster their military capabilities

WHAT ELSE HAS TRUMP SAID ON THE ISSUE?

Trump has a track record of distorting NATO’s significance or hinting at the possibility that the United States might not fulfill its obligations to allies. According to former national security adviser John Bolton’s memoir, Trump came close to withdrawing the U.S. from NATO in 2018.

During that year, Trump often portrayed NATO as a failing business until his intervention. “I went to NATO. And NATO was essentially going out of business ’cause people weren’t paying and it was going down, down, down,” he remarked.

He also lamented that Americans were bearing the burden of financing the alliance. However, U.S. defense spending, despite being well above the 2% target, had been declining for years.

While Trump’s pressure on allies to increase defense spending during his presidency may have prompted some countries to do so, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a more significant factor in motivating them to make substantial investments in defense.

When has NATO intervened to defend an ally?

NATO has played a vital role in maintaining peace in the Balkans and providing security in Afghanistan following a coalition-led invasion. Notably, the U.S. invoked NATO’s Article 5, the common defense clause, for the first and only time in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks.

However, during his presidency, Trump threatened to withhold aid from allies who hadn’t fulfilled their financial obligations, raising doubts about the U.S.’ commitment to collective defense within the Western alliance. Concerns about this commitment resurface ahead of a potential rematch between Trump and Biden.

In response to these concerns, a defense policy bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in December includes provisions stipulating that the president must obtain Senate advice and consent or an act of Congress before withdrawing the U.S. from NATO membership.