“Trump Might as Well Enter the White House at This Point”

^{Image Source: The White House}

For months, pundits and anti-Trump Republicans had been anticipating a substantial challenge to former President Donald Trump. However, the Iowa caucus results not only demonstrated the absence of such a challenge but also marked Trump’s most favorable outcome.

The prospect of jeopardizing Trump’s renomination seemed plausible only if a contender could effectively challenge him from one of two perspectives. The first approach, exemplified by Ron DeSantis, aimed to attract MAGA voters seeking a younger and less embroiled alternative to Trump. The second strategy, as pursued by Nikki Haley, sought to unite traditional non-MAGA Republicans with moderates and independents, forming a coalition to challenge Trump from a more centrist position. Unfortunately, both attempts proved unsuccessful last night.

DeSantis’ inability to resonate with voters can be attributed to his peculiar reluctance to directly differentiate himself from Trump. He needed to communicate to MAGA supporters that Trump was a fair-weather ally—someone who talked a big game but backed down when faced with challenges. While DeSantis occasionally hinted at this point toward the end of the campaign, he failed to run a concise and direct television ad to drive home this message. The candidate who vowed to “never back down” ultimately faltered in making the crucial appeal that could have secured him the nomination.

As for Haley, her continued viability is arguable, given her third-place showing in Iowa, which is influenced by the state’s caucus system. Unlike primaries where voters can cast their ballots at any time on election day, caucuses demand participants to gather in the early evening, enduring hours of waiting before voting. Hardcore partisans may make this sacrifice, but more moderate voters are less inclined to do so. Factor in Iowa’s record-low temperatures on caucus night, and Haley faced an inherently challenging uphill battle.

Haley’s political survival hinges on the upcoming primary in New Hampshire, a state that conducts a primary and leans more moderate than Iowa. Recent polls show her running closely with Trump, and the landscape shifted further when Chris Christie, another candidate appealing to moderates, exited the race. While a second-place finish would have fueled speculation about a two-person race, Haley could still secure a victory in New Hampshire, though the absence of a clear media boost makes it more challenging.

Trump’s already substantial chances received an additional boost with the late-evening departure of Vivek Ramaswamy from the race. The assertive and unpredictable entrepreneur, who secured 8 percent overall and 21 percent among voters under 30, left an important share of the vote up for grabs. Ramaswamy’s endorsement of Trump suggests that the majority of his supporters are likely to follow suit, significantly complicating Haley’s prospects in New Hampshire next Tuesday.

The pivotal factor in this unfolding scenario is Trump’s decisive majority win, which sharply focuses attention. Overcoming a candidate who secures a majority proves challenging, especially since most upcoming states are expected to mirror Iowa rather than New Hampshire. Haley’s meager performance, with only 15 percent of self-described Republicans and 14 percent among conservatives, casts doubt on her ability to win the South Carolina primary on February 24, even with moderate support.

DeSantis, by just scraping through, further complicates Haley’s prospects. His strong appeal to the hard MAGA right leaves him with limited traction beyond that demographic, winning only 8 percent of independents and 6 percent of moderates. This diminishes the likelihood of him drawing substantial support from Haley’s voters if she were to exit the race. However, if DeSantis persists through South Carolina, his conservative backing could effectively undermine Haley’s already slim chances.

The road ahead may force DeSantis to reassess his candidacy, particularly given that candidates courting the religious right often struggle in New Hampshire. Recent polls indicate a modest 6.5 percent for him in the state, and a tight second-place finish may not provide the necessary boost. If he faces a significant setback against Trump in Nevada’s February 8 caucuses, financial constraints could hinder his continuation to South Carolina.

Trump’s ability to defy political norms and capitalize on the strategic missteps of his opponents remains evident. Barring unforeseen challenges in New Hampshire, he appears poised to secure the Republican nomination, potentially as early as Super Tuesday.