Former South African President Jacob Zuma has been disqualified from running in the upcoming May election by election authorities. This decision has intensified political tensions in the country as it gears up for what analysts anticipate to be its most fiercely contested election since the end of apartheid and the dawn of democracy in 1994.
Here’s what we understand about the situation and Zuma’s future in politics:
Who is Jacob Zuma?
Jacob Zuma, aged 81, held the position of South Africa’s fourth president from 2009 to 2018. He played a significant role in the struggle against apartheid, enduring imprisonment alongside Nelson Mandela and other African National Congress (ANC) leaders on Robben Island.
In 1997, Zuma was elected as the vice president of the ANC, followed by his appointment as the nation’s vice president two years later under President Thabo Mbeki’s administration.
Eventually, Zuma ascended to leadership within both the ANC and the country. His impassioned message resonated with millions, particularly the underprivileged. Despite promising to tackle corruption upon assuming office, his tenure was marred by numerous allegations of misconduct and graft. In April 2018, pressure from the ANC compelled him to resign, faced with a looming vote of no confidence and dwindling support.
Renowned for his populist rhetoric, Zuma attempted to portray himself as a victim of systemic corruption during his departure from office. However, under the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa, he found himself marginalized within the ANC.
Zuma’s defiance of a court summons during a corruption inquiry in 2021 led to his sentencing to 15 months in prison. His refusal sparked riots, resulting in over 300 deaths as supporters clashed with security forces. Eventually, he was released on medical parole in September of that year.
In December of the following year, Zuma threw his weight behind the newly formed party uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) or Spear of the Nation, leading to speculation of his involvement in its founding.
“I cannot, and will not, support Ramaphosa’s ANC,” Zuma asserted.
Zuma’s Break from ANC Threatens Party’s Grip on South African Politics
Jacob Zuma’s breakaway from the ANC poses a significant threat to his former party’s dominance in South African politics. Prior to Zuma’s defection, polls were already indicating a potential decline in ANC’s vote share, possibly falling below 50 percent for the first time in history. Zuma’s launch of the MK party last December was explicitly aimed at challenging the ANC’s stronghold in the region.
The choice of the party’s name holds symbolic importance, as MK was the title of the ANC’s former military wing during apartheid, co-founded by Nelson Mandela.
Speaking at the party’s launch, Zuma declared, “The new people’s war starts from today. The only crucial difference is that instead of the bullet, this time we will use the ballot.”
Since the inception of MK, the ANC’s support in opinion polls has continued to dwindle. The most recent poll conducted by Markdata in March indicates that the ANC holds only 41 percent of the national vote, while the MK garners 11 percent.
Zuma’s influence is particularly potent in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province and South Africa’s second most populous region, as well as in Gauteng, the most populous province. These areas were heavily impacted by the riots following Zuma’s arrest in 2021.
According to polling by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) in February, over 60 percent of voters in KwaZulu-Natal, and at least 70 percent of Black voters, expressed preference for the MK over the ANC. Even in a multiparty contest, the MK could secure more than 20 percent of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal alone, potentially reducing the ANC’s national vote share by 5 percentage points.
Frans Cronje, chairman of the SRF, emphasized the transformative potential of these figures, stating, “The ANC house is now on fire and whereas a few weeks ago the most plausible political scenario for South Africa was a steady decline of that party… the prospect is now rising that the roof may come crashing down very much faster.”
The decision to bar Zuma from contesting the election could either dampen the momentum of the MK or, if perceived as victimizing him, further energize his loyal support base, as evidenced by the protests of 2021.
MK Appeals Decision on Zuma Exclusion
Following the announcement, the MK expressed its intention to challenge the decision. Mosotho Moepya, the head of the Electoral Commission of South Africa, confirmed that an objection had been received regarding former President Zuma’s candidacy, which was subsequently upheld. Both the nominating party and the objectors were duly notified of the decision. The window for appeal remains open until April 2nd, with MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela affirming their intent to appeal while assessing the merits of the objection.
In the interim, Zuma is expected to persist in his campaign against the ANC. The potential reversal of the Electoral Commission’s ruling by the courts, enabling Zuma’s participation, could mark a resurgence in his political trajectory. Such an outcome would present a formidable challenge to the ANC, particularly amidst its current polling nadir since assuming power in 1994.
Initially, the ANC sought to bar the MK from contesting the election, petitioning the Electoral Commission accordingly. However, this petition was rebuffed by the Electoral Commission. Subsequently, the ANC pursued legal recourse through the South African court system. In a recent development, the court dismissed the ANC’s petition, thereby granting the MK the green light to partake in the upcoming May election.
South Africa is slated to hold its general elections on May 29th, with the unfolding legal and political maneuvers setting the stage for a consequential electoral landscape.
