Is Putin Confident for another six-year term? Insights into the Upcoming Russian Presidential Election: Challenges, Candidates, and Controversies

The upcoming election in Russia is anticipated to solidify President Vladimir Putin’s authority until at least 2030. Any potential challengers to his rule have been either imprisoned or forced into exile, while independent media outlets critical of his administration have been silenced. The Kremlin maintains strict control over the political landscape and electoral procedures in the nation of 146 million.

Despite these circumstances, the Russian election will be closely observed by those seeking insights into this major nuclear power, particularly amidst its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from the upcoming election: its mechanics, the candidates, and the prospects for a free and fair vote.

Key Statistics on Russian Election Eligibility and Turnout

Any Russian citizen above the age of 18 who is not incarcerated due to a criminal conviction is eligible to participate in the election. According to the Central Election Commission, there are 112.3 million eligible voters within Russia and Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, with an additional 1.9 million eligible voters residing abroad.

In the 2018 presidential election, the voter turnout was 67.5%, but there were widespread reports of violations, such as ballot-box stuffing and coercion to vote. Similarly, in the 2021 parliamentary election, the turnout was 51.7%.

Changes in Voting Procedures for the Russian Presidential Election

Extended Voting Period and Online Voting Introduced in Russian Presidential Election.

In a significant departure from previous elections, voting in the Russian presidential election will span three days, from Friday to Sunday. This marks the first time in Russia’s electoral history that polls will remain open for such an extended duration.

The introduction of multiple-day voting was initially employed during the 2020 referendum on constitutional reforms, spearheaded by President Putin to extend his potential terms in office.

Furthermore, this presidential election will see the debut of online voting, an option available in 27 Russian regions and Crimea, annexed by Moscow from Ukraine a decade ago.

Despite objections from Kyiv and Western nations, voting will also occur in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—regions seized by Russia following the 2022 invasion, although full control is not established. Early voting has already commenced in certain areas and will progressively roll out across others.

Overview of Candidates and Absences in Russian Presidential Election

Vladimir Putin, aged 71, is listed as an independent candidate, vying for a fifth term in office, which could extend his tenure by another six years. Having amended constitutional provisions in 2020, he is now eligible for another term. Putin, who assumed office in 2000, currently holds the record as the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Josef Stalin.

Joining the ballot are candidates nominated by Kremlin-aligned parties represented in parliament: Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. Notably, Kharitonov contested against Putin in 2004, finishing as a distant runner-up.

While these candidates broadly align with Kremlin policies, including the Ukraine conflict, historical trends suggest they lack significant traction to challenge Putin. In the 2018 election, the Communist Party’s runner-up garnered 11.8% of the vote, compared to Putin’s 76.7%.

Boris Nadezhdin, a liberal politician advocating for an end to the war, gathered notable support during his campaign to secure a spot on the ballot. However, election officials disqualified him, citing numerous invalid signatures.

Conspicuously absent from the ballot are opposition figures who could have potentially posed a challenge to Putin. Many have either been imprisoned or forced into exile. Alexei Navalny, Russia’s prominent opposition leader, died in prison on February 16 while serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges. His bid to challenge Putin in the 2018 election was rejected.

Concerns Raised Over Transparency in Russian Presidential Election

Many observers hold little optimism for the forthcoming Russian presidential election, expressing concerns over its fairness and transparency.

Critics, including independent observers, have raised alarm over the decision to extend the voting period over multiple days and introduce online balloting. They argue that such measures serve to exacerbate the lack of transparency in the electoral process.

Furthermore, opposition groups have highlighted instances of alleged manipulation in the 2021 parliamentary elections, particularly in relation to digital voting. Activists have reported incidents of forced voting, a practice captured in social media videos depicting ballot-box stuffing.

Reflecting on the 2018 presidential election, an International Election Observation Mission conducted by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) concluded that the electoral process lacked genuine competition and was marred by persistent pressure on dissenting voices. These observations underscore the ongoing challenges facing electoral integrity in Russia.

Russian Election Viewed as Referendum on Putin and War

In Absence of Alternatives, Russian Election Seen as Referendum on Putin and War

Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, once a speechwriter for Putin, characterizes the upcoming vote as a stark choice between supporting or opposing Putin, likening it to a referendum on the ongoing war. With no viable alternatives to Putin on the ballot, the fragmented opposition views the election as a limited opportunity to voice discontent both with Putin’s leadership and the conflict.

In his final message before his death, Alexei Navalny urged voters to gather at polling stations on the last day of voting to send a message that authorities cannot suppress. Navalny emphasized that Putin perceives the election as a validation of his policies and the war effort, urging citizens to thwart these intentions by demonstrating widespread dissent.