Analysis of Long Run Performance in Suzuka Practice Sets Stage for Race Strategy Variance

After completing initial sighter runs, most teams embarked on lengthy stints with higher fuel loads to assess their performance in managing tires at Suzuka’s demanding and abrasive track surface.

Among the usual front-runners, both Red Bull and Ferrari, the leading teams this season, executed similar run plans during practice, setting the stage for an intriguing picture ahead of Sunday’s race.

Following Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko’s criticism of Charles Leclerc’s FP1 long run for Ferrari as “a bit irritating” on Friday, the Scuderia once again demonstrated competitive pace, evident from the averages of the final one-hour practice session.

Despite considerations such as fuel loads and engine modes, Leclerc showcased strong performance, producing an average of 1m36.204s over a 13-lap stint on medium tires. This marginally outpaced the best long run by Red Bull, achieved by Sergio Perez over 10 laps, albeit with Max Verstappen facing understeer issues aboard his RB20.

Meanwhile, Mercedes adopted a different approach, opting for an extended race simulation effort with George Russell completing 14 laps in FP3, recording an even quicker average of 1m35.301s.

In contrast, Lewis Hamilton conducted a mid-FP3 long run on soft tires, deemed suitable for race use by Pirelli due to cooler spring temperatures, resulting in a competitive average of 1m35.985s. However, there was a noticeable decline in pace from the initial high 1m34s bracket to the low 1m37s by the end of his stint.

McLaren also tested soft tires during a race simulation in FP3, with Oscar Piastri posting a slower average of 1m36.975s, but experiencing a less severe pace drop-off compared to other teams.

Notably, Aston Martin adopted a unique approach, equipping Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll with hard tires for their long runs, mirroring the strategy utilized in last year’s race. Alonso recorded the best average for Aston Martin at 1m35.692s over 11 laps.

The variation in FP3 run plans among teams complicates the true assessment of long-run performance. However, insights gleaned from FP3 data and Pirelli’s statements suggest potential race strategy variations for Sunday’s main event compared to the previous year’s race at Suzuka.

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