Recent polls conducted by Harvard CAPS/Harris indicate a notable shift among Democrats’ perceptions of former President Donald Trump, with a growing proportion seeing him as a figure who could bring about positive change rather than being solely a threat to democracy and national unity.
According to the latest survey in March, 33 percent of Democrats believe that Trump has the potential to shake up the country for the better, marking a three-point increase from February and a five-point rise from January. Conversely, the percentage of Democrats who view Trump as a danger to democracy and a divisive force has steadily decreased, dropping from 72 percent in January to 67 percent in March.
This trend contrasts with previous perceptions, as in November, only 29 percent of Democrats saw Trump as a positive agent of change, while the overwhelming majority, 71 percent, considered him a threat to democracy.
While these shifting perceptions present a challenge for President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, recent polling data has shown Biden making gains in various swing states, despite a tightening race against Trump. Trump currently maintains a lead in states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, with RealClearPolling averages showing him ahead by 1.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Biden’s 7-point lead over Trump in head-to-head matchups on the same day in 2020.
Interestingly, Trump’s approval rating among Democrats has risen since leaving office in 2021, with the March Harvard-Harris poll revealing that 29 percent of Democrats now either strongly or somewhat approve of his performance as commander-in-chief. This is a significant increase from January 2020 when only 14 percent of Democratic respondents expressed approval.
Despite Trump’s gains among some Democrats, President Biden maintains strong support within his own party, with a remarkable 84 percent of Democrats approving of his presidency, despite his overall approval rating standing at 45 percent among all Americans.
Furthermore, there is a growing perception among Democrats that Biden is improving as president. In March’s poll, 52 percent of Democrats believed Biden was making progress, compared to 49 percent in February and 45 percent in January.
